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What will be the new economic models for car manufacturers in 2035?

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The increase in costs associated with electric vehicles and autonomy will greatly affect automakers’ current business models. Because, even with traditional financing, it becomes difficult for the middle classes to access possession or even to use it…and so manufacturers have to sell these vehicles. What challenges will they have to face between now and 2035 to meet these paradigm shifts and stay ahead of the race?

Mobility service

Selling mobility is likely to become the norm in mature markets. Today, nearly half of the vehicles sold in France are affected by rent Long-term through construction and leasing companies, with an ever-increasing trend. Also, this long-term lease makes economic sense for consumers who want to change vehicles regularly (between 3 and 5 years). The cost of electric cars will therefore accelerate this trend. To avoid the risk of being “brokered” and seeing their margins melt away, manufacturers must become primary in this mobility services market.

To do this, they have a differentiation weapon: a Brand image strong. In the future, who better than the manufacturer to rent a car to us, organize repairs or present a new car? But providing mobility services is a different function than making vehicles. to be effective financiallyThus, they are in a better position against the middlemen, who will not only have to grasp the value chain of managing their fleet, but also evaluate the different life of the vehicle, right up to its dismantling.

By generating income from both the sale and lease and the consecutive life of the vehicle until it leaves the fleet, manufacturers can see their additional income increase and offer competitive pricing. However, a specialized organization would be necessary to manage the fleets as well as to monitor them. Beware of those who want to inflate production volumes by offering attractive monthly payments. In fact, if it does not follow the resale of used goods, or leads to a price reduction, it would be the disaster that some manufacturers suffered a few years ago (in the luxury sector in particular).

A complete and integrated business model

Manufacturers economic model tends to become complete and integratedfrom manufacturing to dismantling, including energy and mineral supply.

In recent years, initiatives have been moving in this direction: over the past five years, some manufacturers have chosen to manufacture their batteries through joint ventures and secure their mineral supplies thanks to agreements with mining companies. Thus batteries replace the heat engine in each manufacturer’s technology differential.

there recharge Vehicles are also an essential component of the energy transition. Tesla is well aware of this, its own network of premium superchargers along with its mastery of battery technology and electric motors have been key elements in its rapid rise. BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen and Ford, joined by other manufacturers, also offer fast charging on the highway.

This integrated approach is also valid for disassembly as end-of-life standards for batteries become stringent and costly. But batteries, even old ones, retain a high value because of the minerals they contain, especially with the current rise in their prices. By securing their supply through direct and recycled procurement, manufacturers are building a business model based on full life cycle management. This shift requires significant investment, which has an upward impact on current vehicle costs.

The role of data

While it is clear that data will be key, as in other sectors, these business models are yet to be defined. Some manufacturers have already announced very ambitious goals for Data monetization and related services by 2040. There are two main types of monetization: the use of user data for Targeted ads or use the data for Service improvement.

The use of the vehicle as an advertising medium seems as complex as it is and is largely associated with the autonomous vehicle. It will at best be supplementary income because the costs of manufacturing the vehicles will still be high. Audience numbers won’t be as important as phones and computers anyway. Especially since autonomous vehicle users will continue to use their smartphones. On the other hand, the use of data to improve the service is now a reality, for example for trips with Uber or connected maintenance. The car will eventually be able to identify potential faults and warn the driver or the network. Thus data will generate value and will be a determining factor in economic performance and response to competition.

Column written by: Guillaume Kerbrat, TNP Assistant Director.

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